Week 13 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-11-30 09:12

Matchup Status (Week 13)

29.4 - 18.4 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (4)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 29.4 18.1 18.4 +11.0
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE ✓ 1.4 5.6 8.9 -7.5
Jameson Williams (bench) WR BE ✓ 26.9 11.8 15.1 +11.8
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 25.8 15.7 18.2 +7.6

Games Pending (12)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 17.2 20.5
Bucky Irving RB RB 11.8 12.0
Tyjae Spears RB RB 9.9 8.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.9 24.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 8.7 11.0
Tetairoa McMillan WR RB/WR/TE 13.2 13.0
Jason Myers K K 8.5 9.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.5 10.0
Evan Engram (bench) TE BE 8.1 7.5
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 12.0 10.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 13.7 14.0
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
29.4 Starter Actuals
107.5 Remaining Proj
136.9 Est. Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (5)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNvs ESPN
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB ✓ 11.6 20.9 -9.3
Rome Odunze WR WR ✓ 2.8 13.5 -10.7
Harrison Butker K K ✓ 4.0 8.7 -4.7
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE ✓ 9.0 9.3 -0.3
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE ✓ 12.0 11.0 +1.0

Opponent Games Pending (11)

PlayerPosSlotESPN
Baker Mayfield QB QB 15.5
Rico Dowdle RB RB 15.2
Michael Wilson WR WR 11.5
Trey McBride TE TE 17.3
DK Metcalf WR RB/WR/TE 13.3
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.2
Devin Neal (bench) RB BE 11.1
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE 8.6
Mason Taylor (bench) TE BE 8.5
Quentin Johnston (bench) WR BE 10.0
Shedeur Sanders (bench) QB BE 11.8
18.4 Opp Actuals
80.1 Opp Remaining
98.5 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +38.4 pts

Executive Summary

Week 13 must-win matchup sees us leading 29.4 to 18.4 after Rashee Rice's dominant Friday performance. While Thursday's bench booms from Jordan Love (25.8) and Jameson Williams (26.9) sting, Sunday presents excellent opportunities with JSN as consensus WR1 against vulnerable Minnesota, Jacoby Brissett facing a porous Tampa Bay pass defense, and the Rams D/ST primed for double-digit points against woeful Carolina. Key injury concerns: Bucky Irving (first game back since Week 4, limited workload expected) and MHJ (first game after appendicitis surgery). With our 6-6 record, this is a must-win for playoff positioning.

Key Insights

Recommended Starting Lineup

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QBJacoby BrissettTB17.220.5MODERATEHIGH
RBBucky IrvingARI11.812.0BUSTLOW
RBTyjae SpearsJAX9.98.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaMIN21.924.0MODERATEHIGH
WRRashee RiceLV18.118.4MODERATEMEDIUM
RB/WR/TETetairoa McMillanLAR13.213.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TEJuwan JohnsonMIA8.711.0MODERATEHIGH
KJason MyersMIN8.59.0MODERATELOW
D/STRams D/STCAR7.510.0BOOMHIGH

Lineup Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Love already played Thursday (25.8 pts on bench). Brissett has favorable TB matchup, 18+ pts all 6 starts.

RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Emanuel Wilson - Irving has higher ceiling despite injury risk. Wilson already played (1.4 pts bench).

RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Omarion Hampton - Spears has receiving floor (3+ catches in 5 straight). Hampton on IR.

WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over All - WR1 ECR, 7-game 20+ streak, MIN 28th vs WR. Must start.

WR2: Start Rashee Rice over All - Already played Friday - 29.4 points. Game completed.

FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Marvin Harrison Jr. - MHJ QUESTIONABLE first game back from surgery. McMillan clear CAR #1, safer floor.

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Evan Engram - Johnson TE6-11 ECR, MIA 4th most to TE, Kamara OUT. Engram low floor with DEN.

D/ST: Start Rams D/ST over None - #1 D/ST last week, #5 ECR, face weak CAR. Double-digit potential.

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

PlayerPosBoom%Mod%Bust%Confidence
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR50.0%36.0%14.0%MEDIUM
Jordan LoveQB28.4%50.7%20.9%MEDIUM
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR25.7%56.1%18.2%MEDIUM
Keenan AllenWR25.3%50.4%24.3%MEDIUM
Evan EngramTE24.6%49.7%25.6%MEDIUM
Tetairoa McMillanWR21.3%60.6%18.1%MEDIUM
Jameson WilliamsWR21.1%58.8%20.1%MEDIUM
Juwan JohnsonTE21.0%53.9%25.0%MEDIUM
Jacoby BrissettQB19.5%37.1%43.3%MEDIUM
Rams D/STD/ST18.3%48.9%32.7%MEDIUM
Tyjae SpearsRB13.3%53.7%33.0%MEDIUM
Rashee RiceWR13.2%59.8%26.9%MEDIUM
Jason MyersK12.1%46.1%41.8%MEDIUM
Emanuel WilsonRB10.7%55.1%34.2%MEDIUM
Bucky IrvingRB9.5%36.0%54.5%MEDIUM
Omarion HamptonRB8.3%37.3%54.4%MEDIUM

Jordan Love (GB vs DET)

Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 18.2 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)

Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16

XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)


Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: QB6-10 ECR, 18+ pts all 6 starts, TB 27th pass D (243.5 yds allowed). MHJ expected back spreads coverage.

Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: 27

XGBoost: Boom 20% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)


Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI)

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 12.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: EXPECTED TO PLAY per Schefter but first game since Week 4 (shoulder subluxation). Coach: won't overdo it, 13-15 touches expected. Tucker emerged.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 17

XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)


Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: RB36 ECR, out-touched by Pollard 15-7 last week. JAX 7th-fewest rushing yds allowed since Week 8. PPR floor from 3+ catches.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 7

XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)


Omarion Hampton (LAC vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: ON IR - not playing

Context: O/U: 41.0 | Def Rank: 16

XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Emanuel Wilson (GB vs DET)

Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 8.9 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)

Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16

XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: WR1 ECR consensus, 7-game 20+ pt streak, MIN 28th vs WR (allowed 37.1 to JSN already this season). Weather: 46F calm winds.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28

XGBoost: Boom 50% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)


Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: WR13 ECR, clear CAR #1 (24.5% target share). Career game last week (130yds/2TD). LAR stout pass D (only 3 WR TDs since Week 5).

Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 12

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)


Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: EXPECTED TO PLAY per ESPN after appendicitis surgery Nov 10. Limited practice all week. Rust concern but TB 18th vs WR.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 18

XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)


Rashee Rice (KC vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.4 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)

Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16

XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 27% (MEDIUM)


Jameson Williams (DET vs GB)

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 15.1 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)

Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)


Keenan Allen (LAC vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 10.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: WR40 ECR, 10.8 PPR or less in 4 of last 5. LV zone-heavy helps his skillset. Bench behind JSN/McMillan.

Context: O/U: 41.0 | Def Rank: 18

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)


Evan Engram (DEN vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: TE21 ECR, only 3.2 catches/game with DEN. WSH 24th vs TE provides favorable matchup but low floor.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 24

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)


Juwan Johnson (NO vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: TE6-11 ECR, MIA 5th most pts allowed to TE, Kamara OUT boosts targets. TE1 in 3 Shough starts (TE12, TE3, TE9).

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 5

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)


Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DET

Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 18.2

XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21%

Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)


Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.5

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26%

Notes: TE21 ECR, only 3.2 catches/game with DEN. WSH 24th vs TE provides favorable matchup but low floor.


Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs TB

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0

XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18%

Notes: EXPECTED TO PLAY per ESPN after appendicitis surgery Nov 10. Limited practice all week. Rust concern but TB 18th vs WR.


Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs LV

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54%

Notes: ON IR - not playing


Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs GB

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 15.1

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20%

Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)


Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs DET

Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 8.9

XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34%

Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)


Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs LV

Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 10.0

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24%

Notes: WR40 ECR, 10.8 PPR or less in 4 of last 5. LV zone-heavy helps his skillset. Bench behind JSN/McMillan.


Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 13 | Generated: 2025-11-30 09:12

Matchup Summary

52.0%

Win Probability

+1.3
Expected Margin
136.9
My Team (LLM Proj)
132.4
Opponent (Proj)
32.5
Margin Std Dev
133.8
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -41.0 pts | Median: +1.8 pts | Ceiling: +42.6 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
QB Baker Mayfield QUESTIONABLE 16.7 Shedeur Sanders 5.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 132.4 53.2% +2.0
All injured starters out 15.0% 125.3 61.6% +8.5

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 20.5 3.1-27.4 ↑90% ↓10% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 12.0 0.0-25.5 ↑51% ↓15% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 0.7-12.8 ↑3% ↓28% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR LOW 24.0 20.7-42.8 ↑97% ↓0% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR MED 13.0 7.8-18.8 ↑45% ↓0% Tetairoa McMillan
Rashee Rice WR LOW 29.4 9.8-25.2 ↑81% ↓0% Rashee Rice
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 11.0 1.8-15.1 ↑10% ↓35% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.0 2.4-17.8 ↑14% ↓22% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 9.0 6.9-15.6 ↑16% ↓8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 25.8 9.0-27.3 ↑60% ↓0% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 0.0 4.2-27.1 ↑41% ↓16% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 1.4 1.0-24.5 ↑11% ↓49% Emanuel Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 14.0 0.0-20.8 ↑36% ↓21% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 26.9 1.1-21.7 ↑50% ↓39% Jameson Williams
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 10.0 5.9-22.9 ↑50% ↓5% Keenan Allen
Evan Engram TE HIGH 7.5 2.9-13.3 ↑1% ↓30% Evan Engram

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB HIGH 13.2 0.0-23.1 ↑50% ↓29% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB MED 28.6 10.6-42.3 ↑76% ↓0% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 14.5 3.4-32.0 ↑31% ↓28% Rico Dowdle
DK Metcalf WR MED 12.5 5.4-22.4 ↑28% ↓10% DK Metcalf
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 13.2 2.7-30.1 ↑51% ↓26% Rome Odunze
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 14.9 3.3-24.7 ↑51% ↓23% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 19.4 11.5-28.6 ↑64% ↓0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 0.3-13.3 ↑1% ↓35% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K MED 9.3 4.8-13.9 ↑8% ↓12% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Shedeur Sanders QB HIGH 6.0 0.4-12.8 ↑2% ↓47% Shedeur Sanders
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.4 3.2-19.1 ↑28% ↓34% Kareem Hunt
Devin Neal RB HIGH 4.8 0.6-10.8 ↑0% ↓52% Devin Neal
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 12.2 0.0-24.3 ↑32% ↓20% Quentin Johnston
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 11.1 0.0-21.1 ↑22% ↓14% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 11.0 2.9-28.3 ↑15% ↓23% Romeo Doubs
Mason Taylor TE HIGH 8.9 2.0-16.3 ↑13% ↓37% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 21% @ 25.5 21% @ 18.1 42% @ 14.2 15.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 21% @ 42.7 74% @ 26.2 5% @ 15.0 29.1
Tetairoa McMillan WR 10% @ 31.3 40% @ 16.1 50% @ 9.6 14.3
Rashee Rice WR 60% @ 24.3 20% @ 18.6 20% @ 9.8 20.2
Tyjae Spears RB 10% @ 14.6 64% @ 6.8 26% @ 1.2 6.1
Jason Myers K 46% @ 14.4 45% @ 8.8 9% @ 4.0 10.9
Juwan Johnson TE 10% @ 16.3 51% @ 10.7 39% @ 3.1 8.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 22% @ 27.3 67% @ 22.1 10% @ 0.2 21.0
Rams D/ST D/ST 10% @ 19.0 81% @ 8.3 9% @ -1.9 8.5

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent waiver moves needed. Current roster projects well. Consider streaming options if MHJ is ultimately ruled out pre-game.

Injury Concerns

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 13 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.